Indian economy slowed down to 4.7% in Q4 2014

India EconomyThe Indian economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, holding below the psychological threshold of 5%. The Indian gross domestic product (GDP ) grew by 4.7% year on year in the three months to the end of December, compared to 4.8% achieved quarter earlier. Data based in New Delhi Ministry of Statistics coincided with conducted earlier by Finance Wire Journal survey of 48 local analysts. The Indian central bank raised its benchmark interest rate three times since September, heading to curb strong inflation in the country. According to local economists, this is the only way to generate sustainable economic growth.
“The main negative trend in the past, but the economy is not yet out of danger”, said Radhika Rao, an economist at Singapore-based DBS Bank published in Finance Wire social profile network. “The growth prospects depend on the forthcoming elections in May, as concerns about the continuity of the policy inhibit investment intentions”, she added.
The Indian government estimates that the economy will expand by 4.9% in fiscal 2014, ended at the end of March. An year earlier, there has been decades of a minimum of 4.5%.
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JPY lost positions after the referendum in the Crimea

USD/JPYThe JPY lost some of its accumulated profits over the past week against the EUR and the USD after a referendum on the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian markets rally this morning managed to reduce concerns that the desire of the Crimea to join Moscow could lead to a further increase tensions with the West.
The JPY started the day with declines amid looming denouement about the situation in Crimea. After a referendum on Sunday became clear that about 96% of the votes of the Black Sea peninsula have consented to the region to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The government in Kiev, as well as the US and Europe said the vote is illegal and will not recognize the Outcome of it. Later today will hold a meeting of foreign ministers of the European Union. The meeting is taking sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama held a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, from which it became clear that the White House will not accept the annexation of Crimea to Russia.
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China loosened controls over CNY

CNYChina sent to market one of the strongest signals to trigger discussing reforms in the financial sector. Managing Beijing loosened controls on its currency, despite the economic slowdown in an effort to improve investor confidence in the yuan. As of Monday, the Chinese yuan can be traded daily increase or decrease to 2% against the USD So far, China’s central bank had set the maximum appreciation or depreciation of its currency against the greenback than 1% per day. Easing of restrictions came after economic growth Celestial Empire hit 15-year low in 2013 level of 7.6% put aloud the question of the need for pro-market reforms.
The signals a possible loosening of controls on the currency were there in the last few weeks. A weaker yuan may help Chinese exporters by reducing the price of their products in international markets.
One USD is trading at 6.1503 CNY in late Asian trade on Monday. In this way the Chinese money dropped by 1.7% since the beginning of the calendar year.
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Strong performance of EUR continued during the new week

USD/EURThe EUR rose in early session today, continuing its upward movement since Thursday, when the European Central Bank decided not to change interest rates. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen ended the Asian session with appreciation against a basket of 16 major currencies after data that exports from China has made his most serious decline since 2009. Ongoing tensions in the Crimea also increased interest in Japanese assets as a store of value. The EUR rose against the USD last week, after its meeting on 6 March, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. The president of the institution Mario Draghi said that the risks of deflation reduced. The ECB forecasts are that Eurozone inflation will accelerate to 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
The Asian markets posted significant declines after publication March 8th, data on the trade balance of China. The report shows that exports from the second largest economy in the world unexpectedly declined in February by as much 18.1% from a year earlier. Estimates were exports to grow by 7.5%. At the same time, imports for the same period increased by 10.1%, increasing the trade deficit to 23 billion USD. The analysts said the data probably biased because of the celebrations around the Lunar New Year in China.
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UK GDP is expected to reach pre-crisis level in Q2 2014

Uk GDPAccording to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC – British Chambers of Commerce) in the second quarter UK GDP will exceed pre-crisis level of early 2008. In December, the organization thought it would happen this autumn. House has revised its forecast for growth in 2014 from 2.7% to 2.8%, and that of 2015 – from 2.4% to 2.5%, but also warns of unacceptably high level of youth unemployment.
“Our economy is gaining momentum”, said the General Director of SJC John Longuart. “Companies across the country expand and create jobs, which is reflected in our forecasts”.
“We urge the finance minister George Osborne to use reasonable budget to encourage businesses to hire young people, so that the next generation of workers will not be abandoned”, said Longuart.
Chamber of Commerce provides the first increase in the benchmark interest rate in the country at the end of 2015, it will rise to 0.75 % of the historic low of 0.5%, and the second half of 2016 will gradually reach 1.5%.

USA can further strengthen the contraction of QE

USDUSA can strengthen the restriction of purchases of assets, given the faster than planned economic recovery of the country. Such an opinion expressed chairman of the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia Charles Plosar, who delivered a speech in the French central bank.
The decrease of the pace of asset purchases in measured steps moving in the right direction. Level, however, can leave us far behind the curve if the economy is moving in line with the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)”, stated the head of the Philadelphia Fed. Moreover, in a panel discussion on the monetary policy, banks and the increase in global protectionism Plosar said the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly rose to 6.7% in February, will probably fall to 6.2% in next year. Against the backdrop of improving economic prospects Fed made another round of contraction incentives in January. Limit new 10 billion USD led to the current level of 65 billion USD per month.
Plosar is one of the biggest critics of quantitative easing program. In his last three reports for new jobs outside the agricultural sector were weaker due to the effect of unusually severe winter weather. However, the job market should continue to recover from here.
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US revised the GDP growth for Q4 2014

USDThe US government cut its estimates of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. The correction lower the US GDP growth to 2.4% from 3.2%, which the Commerce Department initially announced, the main reason is that consumer spending have not reached the initial level measured. The reduced estimates suggest that the U.S. did not enter the new year with such strong momentum as previously thought. However, the revised report shows some strengths of the economy and steady growth in consumer spending, higher investment in business and equipment, and export growth. So if these trends have lasting growth will come in the coming months, especially as the weather gets warmer and unusually harsh winter is gone, most economists believe. Downward adjustment of the level of consumer spending, exports, increasing inventories and government spending accounted for the decline of the assessment. The growth in consumer spending was down to 2.6% from 3.3% as тхе Americans spent less on more expensive purchases like cars, appliances and electronics. However, growth is highest in seven quarters.
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Canadian economy expanded with 2.9% in Q4 2014

CanadaThe economic growth in Canada in the fourth quarter exceeded analysts’ expectations despite icy storms in December. The real gross domestic product (GDP) of the country grew by 2.9% annually in the period from October to December. Published by Statistics Canada office level exceeded market expectations for a jump of 2.6%. The achieved result proved higher than expected and the Canadian central bank. The institutions provide for an increase of 2.5%. Quarter earlier increase reached 2.7%.
The economic growth in Canada and beyond achievements in the neighboring United States, where earlier in the day it became clear that the rise in GDP reached 2.4% for the period. The domestic demand for Canadian consumers has risen 0.3% in the fourth quarter, driven mainly by growth in household consumption and government.
In view of the cold weather consumers spend more on electricity, gas and other fuels, which has helped demand by 5%. At the same time, government spending continued to accelerate, rising by 0.4 % on a quarterly basis.
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German inflation accelerated to 1.3% in November

German exportsThe German inflation pushed reached by October 3- year low, but remained below the target rate of 2 percent, adopted in Europe. The cost of living in the first largest economy on the continent rose by 1.3% yoy in November, said the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Measured on a monthly basis, consumer prices grew by 0.2% during the last month compared to October, when the consumer price index fell by 0.2%. As in previous months, the low level of inflation is mainly due to the decline in oil prices (-6.5%) in international markets. While growth in food prices also slowed – to 3.2% of the average level of 4 percent over the previous periods. Meanwhile, German industrial production unexpectedly worsened in October compared to September, announced earlier this week the Ministry of Economics and Technology.
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British industry is growing again in October

british industryThe industrial production in the UK rose for the second consecutive month in October, signaling that the recovery of the economy retains momentum early in the fourth quarter. The production is increased by 0.4% compared to September, when increased by 0.9%, said the Office for National Statistics today. On an annual basis does the growth was 3.2%. The industrial production also e increased by 0.4% mom and 2.7% yoy while oil and natural gas decreased by 2.5% on a monthly basis. Overall economic growth in the third quarter was 0.8%. The growth was led by transport equipment and machinery and the manufacture of rubber and plastic. Of the 13 industry sector performance grew on 7 and dropped on 6. According to self-report exports fell by 1.3% mom in October, while imports declined 1.9%. The deficit on trade in goods narrowed to 9.73 billion GBP from 10.1 billion GBP in September. Trade in services has achieved a surplus of 7.11 billion GBP and so the overall balance of the British trade deficit of notes 2.62 billion GBP.
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